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Stellenbosch vs Moroka Swallows — Premier Soccer League 2018

Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
2/16/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 15Danie Craven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Stellenbosch41%
×Draw31%
Moroka Swallows27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stellenbosch
1.09
Moroka Swallows
0.83

Stellenbosch creates 31% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 62 away

creates per match

Stellenbosch
1.13
Moroka Swallows
0.74

allows per match

Stellenbosch
0.93
Moroka Swallows
1.06

finishing

Stellenbosch+0.00on par
Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stellenbosch ↓

Moroka Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stellenbosch or draw
73%
Stellenbosch or Moroka Swallows
69%
Draw or Moroka Swallows
59%

Winning margin

Stellenbosch wins by 2+
17%
Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stellenbosch 1+ goals
66%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
30%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
10%
Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
56%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
20%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
60%
Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stellenbosch at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 104 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stellenbosch attack 1.13 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + Stellenbosch defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stellenbosch scores more
41%
level
31%
Moroka Swallows scores more
27%

Stellenbosch at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stellenbosch vs Moroka Swallows

Stellenbosch and Moroka Swallows drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on February 16, 2022.

The match was played at Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch.