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Moroka Swallows vs Stellenbosch — Premier Soccer League 2018

Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
5/11/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Dobsonville Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Moroka Swallows34%
×Draw31%
Stellenbosch36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moroka Swallows
0.99
Stellenbosch
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 104 away

creates per match

Moroka Swallows
0.98
Stellenbosch
1.01

allows per match

Moroka Swallows
1.05
Stellenbosch
1.01

finishing

Moroka Swallows+0.00on par
Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moroka Swallows ↓

Stellenbosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Moroka Swallows or draw
64%
Moroka Swallows or Stellenbosch
69%
Draw or Stellenbosch
66%

Winning margin

Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
13%
Stellenbosch wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
63%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
26%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
8%
Stellenbosch 1+ goals
64%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
28%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
48%
Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moroka Swallows at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.05 · 62 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moroka Swallows attack 0.98 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Moroka Swallows scores more
34%
level
31%
Stellenbosch scores more
36%

Stellenbosch at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Moroka Swallows 2–0 Stellenbosch

Moroka Swallows beat Stellenbosch 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Dobsonville Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.