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Start vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2025

Start
Start
Preview
14:00
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
7/18/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 14
Big match
43%
Start
model favours
43%26%31%

Rosenborg score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Start43%
×Draw26%
Rosenborg31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.42
Rosenborg
1.17

Start creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Start
1.00
Rosenborg
1.09

allows per match

Start
1.25
Rosenborg
1.83

finishing

Start+0.00on par
Rosenborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Start or draw
69%
Start or Rosenborg
74%
Draw or Rosenborg
57%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
20%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
76%
Start 2+ goals
41%
Start 3+ goals
17%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
69%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
33%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
58%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 1.00 + Rosenborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rosenborg attack 1.09 + Start defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Start scores more
43%
level
26%
Rosenborg scores more
31%

Start at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosenborg have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Start play Direct / counter-attacking, Rosenborg Possession-dominant
  • 37% of Rosenborg’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Start fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.4 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Start
Direct / counter-attacking
Rosenborg
Possession-dominant
37%PossessionBiggest gap57%
70%Pass accuracy84%
11.2Shots13.7
1.45xG1.56
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
StartRosenborg

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Start
1
Draws
4
Rosenborg
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 20%
1–20–10–00–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Start
LLLWL
Rosenborg
WWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Start vs Rosenborg — Match Preview

Start face Rosenborg on July 18, 2026 in this Eliteserien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.