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Start vs Rosenborg — Eliteserien 2026

Start
Start
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rosenborg
Rosenborg
S. Adegbenro 28'
11/11/2018EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Start40%
×Draw28%
Rosenborg32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.24
Rosenborg
1.07

Start creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

creates per match

Start
0.80
Rosenborg
1.04

allows per match

Start
1.10
Rosenborg
1.68

finishing

Start+0.00on par
Rosenborg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Rosenborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Start or draw
68%
Start or Rosenborg
72%
Draw or Rosenborg
60%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
18%
Rosenborg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
71%
Start 2+ goals
35%
Start 3+ goals
13%
Rosenborg 1+ goals
66%
Rosenborg 2+ goals
29%
Rosenborg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
56%
Rosenborg (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 0.80 + Rosenborg defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rosenborg attack 1.04 + Start defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Start scores more
40%
level
28%
Rosenborg scores more
32%

Start at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
B. MelingRosenborgRosenborg · D
7.7

Match Events

28'
S. Adegbenro↳ B. Meling
62'
Erlend Segberg
72'
T. Christensen← N. Sandberg
76'
J. Levi← P. Helland
78'
Anders Trondsen
78'
A. Aremu← A. Hadzic
80'
M. Bringaker← A. Akinyemi
90+2'
A. Østbø← André Hansen
90+2'
M. Lundemo← A. Trondsen

Possession

40%Start

Shots

11Start

Pass accuracy

47%Start

Statistics

StartRosenborg
Overview
40%Possession60%
11Total Shots9
6Corners6
13Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots9
2On Target4
8Off Target4
1Blocked1
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
298Total Passes462
216Accurate Passes372
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides5

Match Recap: Start vs Rosenborg

Rosenborg beat Start 1-0 in Eliteserien on November 11, 2018.

Goals: S. Adegbenro (28').

Rosenborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Sør Arena in Kristiansand.