Rosenborg 1–0 Start: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Start

C. Holse 67'

11/1/2020

Eliteserien · Round 23Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rosenborg66%

×Draw19%

Start15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.95

Rosenborg

2.25

Start

0.95

Rosenborg creates 137% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

1.71

creates per match

0.86

1.04

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.71

Start

0.86

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.04

Start

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

85%

Rosenborg or Start

81%

Draw or Start

34%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

43%

Start wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

89%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

65%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

39%

Start 1+ goals

61%

Start 2+ goals

25%

Start 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

82%

Start (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Start away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.71 + Start defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.25

Start attack 0.86 + Rosenborg defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rosenborg scores more

66%

level

19%

Start scores more

15%

Rosenborg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Holse

Rosenborg · F

7.7

Match Events

25'

Eirik Wichne

29'

P. Skjelbred← A. Konradsen

46'

C. Holse← P. Helland

53'

Mohamed El Makrini

64'

E. Børufsen← K. Kabran

64'

S. Skålevik← M. Ramsland

67'

C. Holse↳ E. Ceïde

70'

K. Tønnessen← E. Wichne

76'

E. Marković← C. Bolaños

76'

K. Skaanes← M. Bringaker

81'

G. Åsen← E. Ceïde

90'

Mohamed El Makrini

90'

Mohamed El Makrini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgStart

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots10

12Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots10

5On Target2

9Off Target5

6Blocked3

13Inside Box4

7Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

481Total Passes300

371Accurate Passes217

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–0 Start

Rosenborg beat Start 1-0 in Eliteserien on November 1, 2020.

Goals: C. Holse (67').

Rosenborg controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Start — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Rosenborg 1–0 Start