Start 1–1 Lyn: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Start

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lyn

M. Ugland 46'

S. Laghzaoui 24'

6/15/2025

1. Division · Round 10Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Start41%

×Draw23%

Lyn36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StartExpected goals in this matchLyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.59

Start

1.69

Lyn

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

2.00

creates per match

1.75

1.44

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Start

2.00

Lyn

1.75

allows per match

Start

1.44

Lyn

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start+0.00on par

Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Lyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Start or draw

64%

Start or Lyn

77%

Draw or Lyn

59%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+

21%

Lyn wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals

82%

Start 2+ goals

50%

Start 3+ goals

24%

Lyn 1+ goals

80%

Lyn 2+ goals

47%

Lyn 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)

53%

Lyn (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 80 matches

Lyn away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 2.00 + Lyn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Lyn attack 1.75 + Start defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Start scores more

41%

level

23%

Lyn scores more

36%

Start at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

24'

45+5'

45+5'

46'

59'

64'

64'

L. Gausdal← M. Ugland

64'

M. Ingebrigtsen← A. Olsen

64'

M. Niang← A. Hellum

73'

A. E. Nilsen← E. Schulze

76'

D. Arzani← M. Sylla

85'

L. Gausdal

86'

E. Gono← H. Lorentzen

86'

B. Hylen← S. Laghzaoui

Start

Lyn

1

55

6

18

29

▼

Sylla

23

⚽

▼

Laghzaoui

5

Bydal

19

Myhre

9

▼

Olsen

11

▼

10

1

16

4

A

3

5

2

11

▼

Schulze

18

⚽

▼

Ugland

8

Grundetje

20

▼

Lorentzen

10

▼

Mvoue

64'▲D. Dashaev←▼S. Mvoue

64'▲L. Gausdal←▼M. Ugland

73'▲A. E. Nilsen←▼E. Schulze

86'▲E. Gono←▼H. Lorentzen

Start substitutes

24Strand-Kolbjornsen19Dashaev22Nilsen25Benjamin27Sunday29Gono30Gausdal38Jorgensen

Manager: Magnus Aadland

64'▲M. Ingebrigtsen←▼A. Olsen

64'▲M. Niang←▼A. Hellum

76'▲D. Arzani←▼M. Sylla

86'▲B. Hylen←▼S. Laghzaoui

Lyn substitutes

12Wold2Stalesen16Berntsen17Arzani25Ingebrigtsen27Barnett28Niang77Hylen

1. Division: Start 1–1 Lyn

Start and Lyn drew 1-1 in 1. Division on June 15, 2025.

Goals: S. Laghzaoui (24'), M. Ugland (46').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.

Start vs Lyn — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Start 1–1 Lyn