Lyn 0–3 Start: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Lyn

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Start

S. Sjokvist 78' (pen)

H. Lorentzen 45', 28'

11/8/2025

1. Division · Round 30Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Lyn38%

×Draw24%

Start38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LynExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.52

Lyn

1.51

Start

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 77 away

1.53

creates per match

1.53

1.50

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Lyn

1.53

Start

1.53

allows per match

Lyn

1.50

Start

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyn+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lyn or draw

62%

Lyn or Start

76%

Draw or Start

62%

Winning margin

Lyn wins by 2+

18%

Start wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lyn 1+ goals

78%

Lyn 2+ goals

44%

Lyn 3+ goals

19%

Start 1+ goals

78%

Start 2+ goals

45%

Start 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lyn (draw refunded)

50%

Start (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

Start away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn attack 1.53 + Start defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.51

Start attack 1.53 + Lyn defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lyn scores more

38%

level

24%

Start scores more

38%

Lyn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

H. Lorentzen↳ S. Sjokvist

37'

H. Lorentzen

45+2'

H. Nilsen

45'

H. Lorentzen↳ S. Sjokvist

46'

I. Barnett← S. Haugen

54'

54'

55'

55'

61'

J. Skaug← M. Johansen

61'

M. Niang← D. Fredriksen

69'

L. Gausdal← M. Ugland

77'

A. Midtskogen

78'

S. SjokvistPenalty

80'

M. Nordal← H. Lorentzen

81'

A. Ujkani← S. Sjokvist

Lyn

Start

1

4

13

6

2

10

14

18

▼

Ugland

21

⚽A

▼

Sjokvist

11

Schulze

20

⚽2

▼

1

6

4

29

55

▼

Haugen

5

Bydal

24

▼

18

9

11

10

▼

Johansen

Manager: Magnus Aadland

46'▲I. Barnett←▼S. Haugen

61'▲J. Skaug←▼M. Johansen

61'▲M. Niang←▼D. Fredriksen

Lyn substitutes

13Lunde14Isufi17Arzani19Myhre21Skaug25Ingebrigtsen27Barnett28Niang77Hylen

69'▲L. Gausdal←▼M. Ugland

80'▲M. Nordal←▼H. Lorentzen

81'▲A. Ujkani←▼S. Sjokvist

Start substitutes

24Strand-Kolbjornsen5Jebali3Ujkani30Gausdal40Apland27Jemal9Adebayo15Nordal29Gono

Match Recap: Lyn vs Start

Start beat Lyn 3-0 in 1. Division on November 8, 2025.

Goals: H. Lorentzen (28', 45'), S. Sjokvist (78' pen).

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bekkestua.

Lyn vs Start — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lyn vs Start