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Start vs Aalesund — Eliteserien 2026

Start
Start
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aalesund
Aalesund
E. Reitan 48'
K. Lonebu 8'
3/21/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 2Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Start51%
×Draw24%
Aalesund25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start
1.69
Aalesund
1.10

Start creates 54% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

creates per match

Start
0.80
Aalesund
1.11

allows per match

Start
1.10
Aalesund
2.58

finishing

Start+0.00on par
Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start ↓

Aalesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Start or draw
75%
Start or Aalesund
76%
Draw or Aalesund
49%

Winning margin

Start wins by 2+
28%
Aalesund wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Start 1+ goals
82%
Start 2+ goals
50%
Start 3+ goals
24%
Aalesund 1+ goals
67%
Aalesund 2+ goals
30%
Aalesund 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Start (draw refunded)
67%
Aalesund (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start attack 0.80 + Aalesund defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Aalesund attack 1.11 + Start defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Start scores more
51%
level
24%
Aalesund scores more
25%

Start at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
E. ReitanStartStart · D
7.9

Match Events

8'
K. Lonebu↳ H. Hammer
11'
A. Kjelsen← U. Syversen
16'
Marius Andresen
46'
K. Nesso← M. Andresen
48'
E. Reitan↳ M. Ugland
59'
U. Charles← H. Melland
60'
E. Osenbroch← O. Gudmundsson
69'
L. Gausdal← E. Schulze
73'
Kristoffer Klaesson
74'
Jesper CorneliusMissed penalty
75'
Kristoffer Tønnessen
80'
O. Toure← M. Soomets
84'
E. Engqvist← P. Aukland
90+2'
O. Jebali← E. Reitan

Possession

58%Start

Shots

15Start

Pass accuracy

54%Start

Statistics

StartAalesund
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots11
2.90Expected Goals (xG)0.96
11Corners2
14Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots11
4On Target3
6Off Target4
5Blocked4
11Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
411Total Passes308
312Accurate Passes203
76%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08
Discipline
14Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Start vs Aalesund

Start and Aalesund drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on March 21, 2026.

Goals: K. Lonebu (8'), E. Reitan (48').

Start controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.