Aalesund 3–1 Start: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Aalesund

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Start

M. Nielsen 81'

M. Rafferty 6', 4'

E. Björgólfsson 90+6'

10/21/2024

1. Division · Round 27Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Aalesund45%

×Draw24%

Start30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchStart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.29

Aalesund

1.63

Start

1.29

Aalesund creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

2.20

creates per match

1.47

1.10

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Aalesund

2.20

Start

1.47

allows per match

Aalesund

1.10

Start

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par

Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

70%

Aalesund or Start

76%

Draw or Start

55%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

23%

Start wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

80%

Aalesund 2+ goals

48%

Aalesund 3+ goals

22%

Start 1+ goals

72%

Start 2+ goals

37%

Start 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

60%

Start (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

Start away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 2.20 + Start defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.63

Start attack 1.47 + Aalesund defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aalesund scores more

45%

level

24%

Start scores more

30%

Aalesund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Rafferty

6'

M. Rafferty

60'

K. Hoven← D. Dasjajev

60'

T. Strannegård← S. Grønli

70'

S. Nkubiri← M. Ubandoma

77'

S. Nkubiri

78'

H. Shala← H. Lorentzen

78'

E. Björgólfsson← N. Jenssen

81'

M. Nielsen

88'

S. Rogers← J. Kitolano

90+4'

S. Kilen

90'

S. Kilen← P. Ngongo

90'

M. Ramsland← Cláudio Braga

90+7'

E. Kolve← M. Rafferty

90+6'

E. Björgólfsson

Aalesund

Start

45

Pryts

27

Begby

5

▼

Jenssen

19

▼

13

29

8

6

20

▼

Lorentzen

7

▼

Grønli

23

▼

Ubandoma

26

Larsen

5

Grøgaard

2

⚽

Nielsen

3

Međimorec

25

▼

7

11

66

22

⚽2

▼

Rafferty

10

▼

Braga

19

▼

Ngongo

Manager: K. Rekdal

88'▲S. Rogers←▼J. Kitolano

90'▲S. Kilen←▼P. Ngongo

90'▲M. Ramsland←▼Cláudio Braga

90+7'▲E. Kolve←▼M. Rafferty

Aalesund substitutes

44Rogers15Kilen18Ramsland28Kolve6Hammer8Melland17Solskjær24Midthjell33Holte

Manager: A. Karadas

60'▲K. Hoven←▼D. Dasjajev

60'▲T. Strannegård←▼S. Grønli

70'▲S. Nkubiri←▼M. Ubandoma

78'▲H. Shala←▼H. Lorentzen

78'▲E. Björgólfsson←▼N. Jenssen

Start substitutes

9Hoven16Strannegård44Nkubiri25Shala37Björgólfsson1Torkildsen

1. Division: Aalesund 3–1 Start

Aalesund beat Start 3-1 in 1. Division on October 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Rafferty (4', 6'), M. Nielsen (81'), E. Björgólfsson (90+6').

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.

Aalesund vs Start — 1. Division 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Aalesund 3–1 Start