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Start U19 vs Haugesund U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Start U19
Start U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Haugesund U19
Haugesund U19
2/3/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 5Sørlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Start U1931%
×Draw18%
Haugesund U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start U19
2.17
Haugesund U19
2.75

Haugesund U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Start U19
1.84
Haugesund U19
1.91

allows per match

Start U19
3.58
Haugesund U19
2.50

finishing

Start U19+0.00on par
Haugesund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start U19 ↓

Haugesund U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Start U19 or draw
50%
Start U19 or Haugesund U19
82%
Draw or Haugesund U19
69%

Winning margin

Start U19 wins by 2+
17%
Haugesund U19 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Start U19 1+ goals
89%
Start U19 2+ goals
64%
Start U19 3+ goals
36%
Haugesund U19 1+ goals
93%
Haugesund U19 2+ goals
75%
Haugesund U19 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Start U19 (draw refunded)
38%
Haugesund U19 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start U19 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 3.58 · 19 matches

Haugesund U19 away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start U19 attack 1.84 + Haugesund U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.17

Haugesund U19 attack 1.91 + Start U19 defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Start U19 scores more
31%
level
18%
Haugesund U19 scores more
50%

Haugesund U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Haugesund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Start U19 1–3 Haugesund U19

Haugesund U19 beat Start U19 3-1 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Sørlandshallen in Kristiansand.