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Haugesund U19 vs Start U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Haugesund U19
Haugesund U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Start U19
Start U19
9/7/2022Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Lower Table Round - 2Gymnasbane 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Haugesund U1959%
×Draw17%
Start U1924%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund U19
3.04
Start U19
1.96

Haugesund U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Haugesund U19
2.90
Start U19
1.72

allows per match

Haugesund U19
2.19
Start U19
3.17

finishing

Haugesund U19+0.00on par
Start U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund U19 ↓

Start U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Haugesund U19 or draw
76%
Haugesund U19 or Start U19
83%
Draw or Start U19
41%

Winning margin

Haugesund U19 wins by 2+
40%
Start U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Haugesund U19 1+ goals
95%
Haugesund U19 2+ goals
80%
Haugesund U19 3+ goals
57%
Start U19 1+ goals
86%
Start U19 2+ goals
58%
Start U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Haugesund U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Start U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 2.19 · 21 matches

Start U19 away — creates 1.72, concedes 3.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund U19 attack 2.90 + Start U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.04

Start U19 attack 1.72 + Haugesund U19 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Haugesund U19 scores more
59%
level
17%
Start U19 scores more
24%

Haugesund U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Haugesund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nasjonal U19 Champions League: Haugesund U19 4–0 Start U19

Haugesund U19 beat Start U19 4-0 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on September 7, 2022.

The match was played at Gymnasbane 7 in Haugesund.