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Start U19 vs Brann U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Start U19
Start U19
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Brann U19
Brann U19
2/13/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 1Sørlandshallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Start U1927%
×Draw18%
Brann U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start U19
2.08
Brann U19
2.96

Brann U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

creates per match

Start U19
1.84
Brann U19
2.33

allows per match

Start U19
3.58
Brann U19
2.33

finishing

Start U19+0.00on par
Brann U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start U19 ↓

Brann U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Start U19 or draw
45%
Start U19 or Brann U19
82%
Draw or Brann U19
73%

Winning margin

Start U19 wins by 2+
14%
Brann U19 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Start U19 1+ goals
87%
Start U19 2+ goals
61%
Start U19 3+ goals
34%
Brann U19 1+ goals
95%
Brann U19 2+ goals
79%
Brann U19 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Start U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Brann U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start U19 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 3.58 · 19 matches

Brann U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start U19 attack 1.84 + Brann U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Brann U19 attack 2.33 + Start U19 defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Start U19 scores more
27%
level
18%
Brann U19 scores more
55%

Brann U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brann U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start U19 vs Brann U19

Brann U19 beat Start U19 5-2 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sørlandshallen in Kristiansand.