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Brann U19 vs Start U19 — Nasjonal U19 Champions League 2021

Brann U19
Brann U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Start U19
Start U19
4/2/2024Nasjonal U19 Champions LeagueNasjonal U19 Champions League · Group Stage - 6Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Brann U1968%
×Draw15%
Start U1917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann U19
3.34
Start U19
1.67

Brann U19 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Brann U19
3.52
Start U19
1.72

allows per match

Brann U19
1.62
Start U19
3.17

finishing

Brann U19+0.00on par
Start U19+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann U19 ↓

Start U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Brann U19 or draw
83%
Brann U19 or Start U19
85%
Draw or Start U19
32%

Winning margin

Brann U19 wins by 2+
49%
Start U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brann U19 1+ goals
96%
Brann U19 2+ goals
84%
Brann U19 3+ goals
63%
Start U19 1+ goals
81%
Start U19 2+ goals
50%
Start U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Brann U19 (draw refunded)
80%
Start U19 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann U19 at home — creates 3.52, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Start U19 away — creates 1.72, concedes 3.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann U19 attack 3.52 + Start U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 3.34

Start U19 attack 1.72 + Brann U19 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Brann U19 scores more
68%
level
15%
Start U19 scores more
17%

Brann U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brann U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brann U19 vs Start U19

Brann U19 beat Start U19 4-2 in Nasjonal U19 Champions League on April 2, 2024.

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.