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Start II vs Staal Jørpeland — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
6/29/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 13Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Start II51%
×Draw20%
Staal Jørpeland29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
2.30
Staal Jørpeland
1.69

Start II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Start II
1.92
Staal Jørpeland
1.69

allows per match

Start II
1.69
Staal Jørpeland
2.69

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Staal Jørpeland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Start II or draw
71%
Start II or Staal Jørpeland
80%
Draw or Staal Jørpeland
49%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
31%
Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
90%
Start II 2+ goals
67%
Start II 3+ goals
40%
Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
82%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
50%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
64%
Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Staal Jørpeland away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 1.92 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.30

Staal Jørpeland attack 1.69 + Start II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Start II scores more
51%
level
20%
Staal Jørpeland scores more
29%

Start II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start II vs Staal Jørpeland

Start II and Staal Jørpeland drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.