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Staal Jørpeland vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland
CANC
14:00
Start II
Start II
9/5/20203. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 5Jørpeland stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Staal Jørpeland33%
×Draw21%
Start II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Staal Jørpeland
1.71
Start II
2.01

Start II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Staal Jørpeland
2.25
Start II
1.67

allows per match

Staal Jørpeland
2.35
Start II
1.17

finishing

Staal Jørpeland+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Staal Jørpeland ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Staal Jørpeland or draw
55%
Staal Jørpeland or Start II
79%
Draw or Start II
67%

Winning margin

Staal Jørpeland wins by 2+
17%
Start II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Staal Jørpeland 1+ goals
82%
Staal Jørpeland 2+ goals
51%
Staal Jørpeland 3+ goals
24%
Start II 1+ goals
87%
Start II 2+ goals
59%
Start II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Staal Jørpeland (draw refunded)
43%
Start II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Staal Jørpeland at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

Start II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Staal Jørpeland attack 2.25 + Start II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Start II attack 1.67 + Staal Jørpeland defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Staal Jørpeland scores more
33%
level
21%
Start II scores more
45%

Start II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Staal Jørpeland vs Start II — Match Preview

Staal Jørpeland face Start II on September 5, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Staal Jørpeland host Start II at Jørpeland stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.