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Start II vs Odd II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Odd II
Odd II
9/17/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 20Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Start II49%
×Draw21%
Odd II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
2.14
Odd II
1.67

Start II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Start II
2.23
Odd II
1.80

allows per match

Start II
1.54
Odd II
2.05

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Odd II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Odd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Start II or draw
69%
Start II or Odd II
79%
Draw or Odd II
51%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
28%
Odd II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
88%
Start II 2+ goals
63%
Start II 3+ goals
36%
Odd II 1+ goals
81%
Odd II 2+ goals
50%
Odd II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
61%
Odd II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

Odd II away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 2.23 + Odd II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.14

Odd II attack 1.80 + Start II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Start II scores more
49%
level
21%
Odd II scores more
31%

Start II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Start II 1 – 1 Odd II

Start II and Odd II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.