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Odd II vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Odd II
Odd II
FT
2 – 7
HT: 1 – 3
Start II
Start II
6/26/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 11Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Odd II56%
×Draw19%
Start II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odd II
2.65
Start II
1.77

Odd II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

creates per match

Odd II
2.44
Start II
1.38

allows per match

Odd II
2.17
Start II
2.85

finishing

Odd II+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odd II ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Odd II or draw
75%
Odd II or Start II
81%
Draw or Start II
44%

Winning margin

Odd II wins by 2+
36%
Start II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Odd II 1+ goals
93%
Odd II 2+ goals
74%
Odd II 3+ goals
48%
Start II 1+ goals
83%
Start II 2+ goals
53%
Start II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Odd II (draw refunded)
69%
Start II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odd II at home — creates 2.44, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odd II attack 2.44 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.65

Start II attack 1.38 + Odd II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Odd II scores more
56%
level
19%
Start II scores more
25%

Odd II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Odd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odd II vs Start II

Start II beat Odd II 7-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 26, 2023.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.