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Start II vs Mandalskameratene — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mandalskameratene
Mandalskameratene
D. S. Gummedal 73'
H. Heh 4'
4/13/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 2Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Start II59%
×Draw19%
Mandalskameratene22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
2.54
Mandalskameratene
1.53

Start II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Start II
1.92
Mandalskameratene
1.38

allows per match

Start II
1.69
Mandalskameratene
3.15

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Mandalskameratene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Start II or draw
78%
Start II or Mandalskameratene
81%
Draw or Mandalskameratene
41%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
38%
Mandalskameratene wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
92%
Start II 2+ goals
72%
Start II 3+ goals
46%
Mandalskameratene 1+ goals
78%
Mandalskameratene 2+ goals
45%
Mandalskameratene 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
73%
Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Mandalskameratene away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 1.92 + Mandalskameratene defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.54

Mandalskameratene attack 1.38 + Start II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Start II scores more
59%
level
19%
Mandalskameratene scores more
22%

Start II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
H. Heh
73'
D. S. Gummedal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Start II 1–1 Mandalskameratene

Start II and Mandalskameratene drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 13, 2024.

Goals: H. Heh (4'), D. S. Gummedal (73').

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.