Mandalskameratene 2–3 Start II: Result & Stats

Mandalskameratene

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Start II

9/18/2022

3. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 21Idrettsparken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Mandalskameratene61%

×Draw19%

Start II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MandalskamerateneExpected goals in this matchStart II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.38

Mandalskameratene

2.49

Start II

1.38

Mandalskameratene creates 80% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

2.13

creates per match

1.38

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Mandalskameratene

2.13

Start II

1.38

allows per match

Mandalskameratene

1.38

Start II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mandalskameratene+0.00on par

Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mandalskameratene ↓

Start II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Mandalskameratene or draw

80%

Mandalskameratene or Start II

81%

Draw or Start II

39%

Winning margin

Mandalskameratene wins by 2+

40%

Start II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mandalskameratene 1+ goals

92%

Mandalskameratene 2+ goals

71%

Mandalskameratene 3+ goals

45%

Start II 1+ goals

75%

Start II 2+ goals

40%

Start II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mandalskameratene (draw refunded)

75%

Start II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mandalskameratene at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Start II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mandalskameratene attack 2.13 + Start II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.49

Start II attack 1.38 + Mandalskameratene defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mandalskameratene scores more

61%

level

19%

Start II scores more

20%

Mandalskameratene at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mandalskameratene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff