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Start II vs Madla — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Madla
Madla
4/28/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 4Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Start II40%
×Draw21%
Madla40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
2.04
Madla
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Start II
1.92
Madla
2.38

allows per match

Start II
1.69
Madla
2.15

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Madla+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Madla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Start II or draw
60%
Start II or Madla
79%
Draw or Madla
60%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
22%
Madla wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
87%
Start II 2+ goals
60%
Start II 3+ goals
33%
Madla 1+ goals
87%
Madla 2+ goals
60%
Madla 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
50%
Madla (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Madla away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 1.92 + Madla defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.04

Madla attack 2.38 + Start II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Start II scores more
40%
level
21%
Madla scores more
40%

Start II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start II vs Madla

Start II beat Madla 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.