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Start II vs Madla — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Start II
Start II
FT
2 – 2
Madla
Madla
9/18/20213. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 4Sparebanken Sør Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Start II60%
×Draw20%
Madla21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start II
2.30
Madla
1.29

Start II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Start II
2.00
Madla
1.45

allows per match

Start II
1.14
Madla
2.60

finishing

Start II+0.00on par
Madla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start II ↓

Madla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Start II or draw
79%
Start II or Madla
80%
Draw or Madla
40%

Winning margin

Start II wins by 2+
38%
Madla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Start II 1+ goals
90%
Start II 2+ goals
67%
Start II 3+ goals
40%
Madla 1+ goals
72%
Madla 2+ goals
37%
Madla 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Start II (draw refunded)
74%
Madla (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Madla away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start II attack 2.00 + Madla defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Madla attack 1.45 + Start II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Start II scores more
60%
level
20%
Madla scores more
21%

Start II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Start II vs Madla

Start II and Madla drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sparebanken Sør Arena in Kristiansand.