Start Brno 0–3 Zlín II: Result & Stats

Start Brno

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Zlín II

11/17/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 16TCM Sladovnická UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Start Brno39%

×Draw25%

Zlín II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Start BrnoExpected goals in this matchZlín II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.41

Start Brno

1.48

Zlín II

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 83 away

1.09

creates per match

1.01

1.80

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Start Brno

1.09

Zlín II

1.01

allows per match

Start Brno

1.80

Zlín II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par

Zlín II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Zlín II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw

64%

Start Brno or Zlín II

75%

Draw or Zlín II

61%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+

19%

Zlín II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals

77%

Start Brno 2+ goals

43%

Start Brno 3+ goals

19%

Zlín II 1+ goals

76%

Zlín II 2+ goals

41%

Zlín II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)

52%

Zlín II (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

Zlín II away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.86 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 1.09 + Zlín II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zlín II attack 1.01 + Start Brno defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Start Brno scores more

39%

level

25%

Zlín II scores more

36%

Start Brno at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff