Zlín II 2–1 Start Brno: Result & Stats

Zlín II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Start Brno

P. Kulisek 88' (pen)

E. H. Ndiaye 55'

M. Zikl 42'

5/1/2024

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 33Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zlín II46%

×Draw23%

Start Brno31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zlín IIExpected goals in this matchStart Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.38

Zlín II

1.74

Start Brno

1.38

Zlín II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 33 away

1.72

creates per match

1.39

1.36

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Zlín II

1.72

Start Brno

1.39

allows per match

Zlín II

1.36

Start Brno

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par

Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Start Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw

69%

Zlín II or Start Brno

77%

Draw or Start Brno

54%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+

24%

Start Brno wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals

82%

Zlín II 2+ goals

52%

Zlín II 3+ goals

25%

Start Brno 1+ goals

75%

Start Brno 2+ goals

40%

Start Brno 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)

60%

Start Brno (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Start Brno away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Start Brno defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

Start Brno attack 1.39 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zlín II scores more

46%

level

23%

Start Brno scores more

31%

Zlín II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Stropsa

26'

F. Jura

32'

F. Jura

32'

F. Jura

33'

P. Duda

42'

M. Zikl

45+1'

46'

P. Honig← P. Honig

49'

P. Duda

49'

P. Duda

49'

F. Jicha

55'

E. H. Ndiaye

62'

S. Vantuch

73'

R. Hamalcik← R. Hamalcik

82'

D. Brzobohaty← D. Brzobohaty

84'

A. Ciz← A. Ciz

85'

D. Strnad← D. Strnad

87'

S. Sumbera

88'

P. KulisekPenalty

89'

R. Hamalcik

89'

M. Zikl← L. Rogozan

90+3'

T. Zabojnik← T. Zabojnik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff