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Start Brno vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Start Brno
Start Brno
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
6/15/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 32Hřiště Loosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Start Brno29%
×Draw25%
Slovan Rosice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start Brno
1.17
Slovan Rosice
1.54

Slovan Rosice creates 32% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 66 away

creates per match

Start Brno
1.09
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Start Brno
1.80
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw
54%
Start Brno or Slovan Rosice
75%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
71%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+
12%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals
69%
Start Brno 2+ goals
33%
Start Brno 3+ goals
11%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
79%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
45%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)
39%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 1.09 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Start Brno defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Start Brno scores more
29%
level
25%
Slovan Rosice scores more
46%

Slovan Rosice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Start Brno 1–1 Slovan Rosice

Start Brno and Slovan Rosice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště Loosova in Brno.