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Slovan Rosice vs Start Brno — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Start Brno
Start Brno
11/11/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 15Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Slovan Rosice50%
×Draw24%
Start Brno25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Rosice
1.68
Start Brno
1.12

Slovan Rosice creates 50% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

Slovan Rosice
1.60
Start Brno
1.39

allows per match

Slovan Rosice
0.85
Start Brno
1.76

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par
Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Start Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw
75%
Slovan Rosice or Start Brno
76%
Draw or Start Brno
50%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
27%
Start Brno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
81%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
50%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
24%
Start Brno 1+ goals
67%
Start Brno 2+ goals
31%
Start Brno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
66%
Start Brno (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.85 · 68 matches

Start Brno away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.60 + Start Brno defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

Start Brno attack 1.39 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more
50%
level
24%
Start Brno scores more
25%

Slovan Rosice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovan Rosice 1–2 Start Brno

Start Brno beat Slovan Rosice 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště FC Slovan in Rosice.