Start Brno 2–1 Slovácko II: Result & Stats

Start Brno

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Slovácko II

11/4/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 14TCM Sladovnická UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Start Brno32%

×Draw24%

Slovácko II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Start BrnoExpected goals in this matchSlovácko II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.60

Start Brno

1.34

Slovácko II

1.60

Slovácko II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 82 away

1.09

creates per match

1.41

1.80

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Start Brno

1.09

Slovácko II

1.41

allows per match

Start Brno

1.80

Slovácko II

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par

Slovácko II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Slovácko II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw

56%

Start Brno or Slovácko II

76%

Draw or Slovácko II

68%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+

14%

Slovácko II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals

74%

Start Brno 2+ goals

39%

Start Brno 3+ goals

15%

Slovácko II 1+ goals

80%

Slovácko II 2+ goals

47%

Slovácko II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)

42%

Slovácko II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

Slovácko II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 1.09 + Slovácko II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.34

Slovácko II attack 1.41 + Start Brno defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Start Brno scores more

32%

level

24%

Slovácko II scores more

44%

Slovácko II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff