Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Slovácko II vs Start Brno — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Start Brno
Start Brno
3/28/20263. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 21Stadion Na Belince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Slovácko II48%
×Draw23%
Start Brno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
1.77
Start Brno
1.33

Slovácko II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 33 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Start Brno
1.39

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Start Brno
1.76

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Start Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
71%
Slovácko II or Start Brno
77%
Draw or Start Brno
52%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
26%
Start Brno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
83%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
53%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
26%
Start Brno 1+ goals
74%
Start Brno 2+ goals
38%
Start Brno 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
62%
Start Brno (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Start Brno away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Start Brno defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Start Brno attack 1.39 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Slovácko II scores more
48%
level
23%
Start Brno scores more
29%

Slovácko II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovácko II 2–1 Start Brno

Slovácko II beat Start Brno 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Na Belince in Kunovice - UH.