Start Brno 5–1 Slavoj Polná: Result & Stats

Start Brno

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Slavoj Polná

6/17/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 14Hřiště Loosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Start Brno70%

×Draw16%

Slavoj Polná14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Start BrnoExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Polná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

1.17

Start Brno

2.79

Slavoj Polná

1.17

Start Brno creates 138% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

2.38

creates per match

0.96

1.38

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Start Brno

2.38

Slavoj Polná

0.96

allows per match

Start Brno

1.38

Slavoj Polná

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Slavoj Polná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw

86%

Start Brno or Slavoj Polná

84%

Draw or Slavoj Polná

30%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+

50%

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals

94%

Start Brno 2+ goals

76%

Start Brno 3+ goals

52%

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

69%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

33%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)

84%

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 2.38 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.79

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Start Brno defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Start Brno scores more

70%

level

16%

Slavoj Polná scores more

14%

Start Brno at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff