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Slavoj Polná vs Start Brno — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Start Brno
Start Brno
10/31/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slavoj Polná16%
×Draw19%
Start Brno66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.06
Start Brno
2.34

Start Brno creates 121% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Start Brno
2.19

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Start Brno
1.30

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Start Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
34%
Slavoj Polná or Start Brno
81%
Draw or Start Brno
84%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
6%
Start Brno wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
65%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
29%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
9%
Start Brno 1+ goals
90%
Start Brno 2+ goals
67%
Start Brno 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
19%
Start Brno (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Start Brno away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Start Brno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Start Brno attack 2.19 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
16%
level
19%
Start Brno scores more
66%

Start Brno at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Polná vs Start Brno

Slavoj Polná and Start Brno drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Slavoj Polná in Polná.