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Start Brno vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Start Brno
Start Brno
FT
2 – 2
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
8/7/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 2Hřiště Loosova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Start Brno64%
×Draw18%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Start Brno
2.50
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.28

Start Brno creates 95% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

creates per match

Start Brno
2.38
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.19

allows per match

Start Brno
1.38
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.62

finishing

Start Brno+0.00on par
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Start Brno ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Start Brno or draw
82%
Start Brno or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
82%
Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
36%

Winning margin

Start Brno wins by 2+
42%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Start Brno 1+ goals
92%
Start Brno 2+ goals
71%
Start Brno 3+ goals
45%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
72%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
37%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Start Brno (draw refunded)
78%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Start Brno at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 37 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Start Brno attack 2.38 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.50

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Start Brno defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Start Brno scores more
64%
level
18%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
18%

Start Brno at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Start Brno 2–2 Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Start Brno and Bystřice nad Pernštejnem drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Hřiště Loosova in Brno.