Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 0–1 Start Brno

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Start Brno

3/26/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 15Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem21%

×Draw20%

Start Brno59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bystřice nad PernštejnemExpected goals in this matchStart Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.28

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.31

Start Brno

2.28

Start Brno creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

1.32

creates per match

2.19

2.37

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.32

Start Brno

2.19

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

2.37

Start Brno

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Start Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Start Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw

41%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Start Brno

80%

Draw or Start Brno

79%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+

9%

Start Brno wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals

73%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals

38%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals

14%

Start Brno 1+ goals

90%

Start Brno 2+ goals

66%

Start Brno 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)

27%

Start Brno (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Start Brno away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Start Brno defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Start Brno attack 2.19 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more

21%

level

20%

Start Brno scores more

59%

Start Brno at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Start Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff