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Starowice Dolne vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
FT
1 – 3
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
6/8/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion Starowice Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Starowice Dolne32%
×Draw23%
Odra Bytom Odrzański44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starowice Dolne
1.44
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.73

Odra Bytom Odrzański creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Starowice Dolne
1.03
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Starowice Dolne
2.42
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starowice Dolne ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Starowice Dolne or draw
56%
Starowice Dolne or Odra Bytom Odrzański
77%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
68%

Winning margin

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
15%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
76%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
42%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
18%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
82%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
52%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
42%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starowice Dolne at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starowice Dolne attack 1.03 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.44

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Starowice Dolne scores more
32%
level
23%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
44%

Odra Bytom Odrzański at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Odra Bytom Odrzański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Starowice Dolne 1–3 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Odra Bytom Odrzański beat Starowice Dolne 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Starowice Dolne in Gmina Grodków.