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Odra Bytom Odrzański vs Starowice Dolne — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
FT
1 – 0
Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański52%
×Draw23%
Starowice Dolne25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.86
Starowice Dolne
1.21

Odra Bytom Odrzański creates 54% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.35
Starowice Dolne
0.94

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.47
Starowice Dolne
2.38

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par
Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Starowice Dolne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw
75%
Odra Bytom Odrzański or Starowice Dolne
77%
Draw or Starowice Dolne
48%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
30%
Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
84%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
55%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
28%
Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
70%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
34%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
68%
Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Starowice Dolne away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.86

Starowice Dolne attack 0.94 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
52%
level
23%
Starowice Dolne scores more
25%

Odra Bytom Odrzański at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Odra Bytom Odrzański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Bytom Odrzański 1–0 Starowice Dolne

Odra Bytom Odrzański beat Starowice Dolne 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim in Bytom Odrzański.