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Starowice Dolne vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
8/19/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Starowice Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Starowice Dolne29%
×Draw22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starowice Dolne
1.44
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.90

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 69 away

creates per match

Starowice Dolne
1.03
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Starowice Dolne
2.42
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starowice Dolne ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Starowice Dolne or draw
52%
Starowice Dolne or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
78%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
71%

Winning margin

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
13%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
76%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
42%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
18%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
85%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
56%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
38%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starowice Dolne at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starowice Dolne attack 1.03 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Starowice Dolne scores more
29%
level
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
48%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Starowice Dolne vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Starowice Dolne and Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Starowice Dolne in Gmina Grodków.