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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Starowice Dolne — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
M. Flak 82'
J. Kaczmarek 61', 25'
A. Lubaski 55'
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry55%
×Draw22%
Starowice Dolne23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.94
Starowice Dolne
1.19

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 63% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Starowice Dolne
0.94

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Starowice Dolne
2.38

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Starowice Dolne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
77%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Starowice Dolne
78%
Draw or Starowice Dolne
45%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
32%
Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
86%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
58%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
30%
Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
70%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
33%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
70%
Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Starowice Dolne away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Starowice Dolne attack 0.94 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
55%
level
22%
Starowice Dolne scores more
23%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
J. Kaczmarek
55'
A. Lubaski
61'
J. Kaczmarek
82'
M. Flak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Starowice Dolne

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Starowice Dolne 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 9, 2024.

Goals: J. Kaczmarek (25', 61'), A. Lubaski (55'), M. Flak (82').

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.