Starowice Dolne 1–1 Górnik Zabrze II

Starowice Dolne

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Górnik Zabrze II

3/2/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion Starowice Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Starowice Dolne26%

×Draw21%

Górnik Zabrze II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Starowice DolneExpected goals in this matchGórnik Zabrze II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.06

Starowice Dolne

1.39

Górnik Zabrze II

2.06

Górnik Zabrze II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 103 away

1.03

creates per match

1.70

2.42

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Starowice Dolne

1.03

Górnik Zabrze II

1.70

allows per match

Starowice Dolne

2.42

Górnik Zabrze II

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starowice Dolne ↓

Górnik Zabrze II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Starowice Dolne or draw

47%

Starowice Dolne or Górnik Zabrze II

79%

Draw or Górnik Zabrze II

74%

Winning margin

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+

11%

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals

75%

Starowice Dolne 2+ goals

40%

Starowice Dolne 3+ goals

16%

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

87%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

61%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)

33%

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starowice Dolne at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Górnik Zabrze II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starowice Dolne attack 1.03 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.39

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.70 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Starowice Dolne scores more

26%

level

21%

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

53%

Górnik Zabrze II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff