Górnik Zabrze II 3–2 Starowice Dolne

Górnik Zabrze II

FT

3 – 2

Starowice Dolne

8/13/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Zabrze II60%

×Draw21%

Starowice Dolne19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik Zabrze IIExpected goals in this matchStarowice Dolne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.09

Górnik Zabrze II

2.08

Starowice Dolne

1.09

Górnik Zabrze II creates 91% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

1.79

creates per match

0.94

1.25

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.79

Starowice Dolne

0.94

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze II

1.25

Starowice Dolne

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Zabrze II+0.00on par

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze II ↓

Starowice Dolne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze II or draw

81%

Górnik Zabrze II or Starowice Dolne

79%

Draw or Starowice Dolne

40%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze II wins by 2+

37%

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze II 1+ goals

87%

Górnik Zabrze II 2+ goals

61%

Górnik Zabrze II 3+ goals

34%

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals

66%

Starowice Dolne 2+ goals

30%

Starowice Dolne 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze II (draw refunded)

76%

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

Starowice Dolne away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze II attack 1.79 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.08

Starowice Dolne attack 0.94 + Górnik Zabrze II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Górnik Zabrze II scores more

60%

level

21%

Starowice Dolne scores more

19%

Górnik Zabrze II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff