Starowice Dolne 2–1 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Starowice Dolne

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Goczałkowice Zdrój

11/11/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Starowice Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Starowice Dolne25%

×Draw23%

Goczałkowice Zdrój52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Starowice DolneExpected goals in this matchGoczałkowice Zdrój

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.82

Starowice Dolne

1.20

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.82

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 102 away

1.03

creates per match

1.22

2.42

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Starowice Dolne

1.03

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.22

allows per match

Starowice Dolne

2.42

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starowice Dolne ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Starowice Dolne or draw

48%

Starowice Dolne or Goczałkowice Zdrój

77%

Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój

75%

Winning margin

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+

10%

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals

70%

Starowice Dolne 2+ goals

34%

Starowice Dolne 3+ goals

12%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

84%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

54%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)

33%

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starowice Dolne at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starowice Dolne attack 1.03 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Starowice Dolne scores more

25%

level

23%

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

52%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff