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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Starowice Dolne — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
11/22/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 18Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój59%
×Draw22%
Starowice Dolne19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.98
Starowice Dolne
1.03

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 92% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Starowice Dolne
0.94

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Starowice Dolne
2.38

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Starowice Dolne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
81%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Starowice Dolne
78%
Draw or Starowice Dolne
41%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
35%
Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
86%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
59%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
31%
Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
64%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
28%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
76%
Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Starowice Dolne away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.98

Starowice Dolne attack 0.94 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
59%
level
22%
Starowice Dolne scores more
19%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Starowice Dolne

Goczałkowice Zdrój and Starowice Dolne drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.