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Starogard Gdański vs Radunia Stężyca — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
0 – 2
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
5/1/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Starogard Gdański14%
×Draw17%
Radunia Stężyca68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.04
Radunia Stężyca
2.48

Radunia Stężyca creates 138% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Radunia Stężyca
3.06

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Radunia Stężyca
0.82

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
32%
Starogard Gdański or Radunia Stężyca
83%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
86%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
5%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
65%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
28%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
9%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
92%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
70%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
17%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
14%
level
17%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
68%

Radunia Stężyca at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Starogard Gdański vs Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Starogard Gdański 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.