Radunia Stężyca 0–1 Starogard Gdański

Radunia Stężyca

FT

0 – 1

Starogard Gdański

6/12/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca72%

×Draw17%

Starogard Gdański12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radunia StężycaExpected goals in this matchStarogard Gdański

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.90

Radunia Stężyca

2.48

Starogard Gdański

0.90

Radunia Stężyca creates 176% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 66 away

3.50

creates per match

1.24

0.56

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca

3.50

Starogard Gdański

1.24

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca

0.56

Starogard Gdański

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Starogard Gdański →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw

88%

Radunia Stężyca or Starogard Gdański

83%

Draw or Starogard Gdański

28%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+

49%

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals

92%

Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals

70%

Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals

44%

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals

59%

Starogard Gdański 2+ goals

23%

Starogard Gdański 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)

86%

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.48

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more

72%

level

17%

Starogard Gdański scores more

12%

Radunia Stężyca at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff