Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Starogard Gdański vs Pogoń Szczecin II — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
8/27/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Starogard Gdański32%
×Draw23%
Pogoń Szczecin II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.44
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.74

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 104 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.58

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Pogoń Szczecin II
1.61

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Pogoń Szczecin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
55%
Starogard Gdański or Pogoń Szczecin II
77%
Draw or Pogoń Szczecin II
68%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
15%
Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
76%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
42%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
18%
Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
82%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
52%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
42%
Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Pogoń Szczecin II away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 1.58 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
32%
level
23%
Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
45%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Starogard Gdański 0–2 Pogoń Szczecin II

Pogoń Szczecin II beat Starogard Gdański 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.