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Pogoń Szczecin II vs Starogard Gdański — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Szczecin II
Pogoń Szczecin II
FT
2 – 1
Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
3/31/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Pogoń Szczecin II52%
×Draw22%
Starogard Gdański26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.90
Starogard Gdański
1.29

Pogoń Szczecin II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
2.32
Starogard Gdański
1.24

allows per match

Pogoń Szczecin II
1.34
Starogard Gdański
1.47

finishing

Pogoń Szczecin II+0.00on par
Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Szczecin II ↓

Starogard Gdański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pogoń Szczecin II or draw
74%
Pogoń Szczecin II or Starogard Gdański
78%
Draw or Starogard Gdański
48%

Winning margin

Pogoń Szczecin II wins by 2+
29%
Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pogoń Szczecin II 1+ goals
85%
Pogoń Szczecin II 2+ goals
56%
Pogoń Szczecin II 3+ goals
29%
Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
72%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
37%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Szczecin II (draw refunded)
66%
Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Szczecin II at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.34 · 99 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Szczecin II attack 2.32 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Pogoń Szczecin II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Pogoń Szczecin II scores more
52%
level
22%
Starogard Gdański scores more
26%

Pogoń Szczecin II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pogoń Szczecin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Pogoń Szczecin II 2–1 Starogard Gdański

Pogoń Szczecin II beat Starogard Gdański 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.