Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Starogard Gdański vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
D. Kaczmarek 53'
K. Dymarski 49'
8/27/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Starogard Gdański29%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.31
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.73

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 85 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.55

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.36

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
53%
Starogard Gdański or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
76%
Draw or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
71%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
12%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
73%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
38%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
14%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals
82%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals
52%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
38%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.55 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
29%
level
24%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more
47%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
49'
K. Dymarski
53'
D. Kaczmarek
70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Starogard Gdański vs Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce beat Starogard Gdański 2-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 27, 2023.

Goals: K. Dymarski (49'), D. Kaczmarek (53').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.