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Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Starogard Gdański — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
D. Kaczmarek 20' (pen)
P. Brzezianski 53'
8/6/2022III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce38%
×Draw26%
Starogard Gdański36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.37
Starogard Gdański
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.27
Starogard Gdański
1.24

allows per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.39
Starogard Gdański
1.47

finishing

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par
Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce ↓

Starogard Gdański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or draw
64%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or Starogard Gdański
74%
Draw or Starogard Gdański
62%

Winning margin

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+
18%
Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals
75%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals
40%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals
16%
Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
73%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
38%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)
52%
Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.27 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more
38%
level
26%
Starogard Gdański scores more
36%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
D. KaczmarekPenalty
45+2'
K. Pinkowski
53'
P. Brzezianski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Starogard Gdański

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce and Starogard Gdański drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Kaczmarek (20' pen), P. Brzezianski (53').

The match was played at Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach in Nowe Skalmierzyce.