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Starogard Gdański vs Elana Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Starogard Gdański
Starogard Gdański
FT
1 – 1
Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
5/22/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Starogard Gdański28%
×Draw24%
Elana Toruń48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starogard Gdański
1.27
Elana Toruń
1.73

Elana Toruń creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 78 away

creates per match

Starogard Gdański
1.26
Elana Toruń
1.55

allows per match

Starogard Gdański
1.90
Elana Toruń
1.27

finishing

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par
Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starogard Gdański ↓

Elana Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Starogard Gdański or draw
52%
Starogard Gdański or Elana Toruń
76%
Draw or Elana Toruń
72%

Winning margin

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+
12%
Elana Toruń wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals
72%
Starogard Gdański 2+ goals
36%
Starogard Gdański 3+ goals
14%
Elana Toruń 1+ goals
82%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
52%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)
37%
Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starogard Gdański at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.90 · 69 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starogard Gdański attack 1.26 + Elana Toruń defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Elana Toruń attack 1.55 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Starogard Gdański scores more
28%
level
24%
Elana Toruń scores more
48%

Elana Toruń at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Starogard Gdański 1–1 Elana Toruń

Starogard Gdański and Elana Toruń drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Kazimierza Deyny in Starogard Gdański.