Elana Toruń vs Starogard Gdański

Elana Toruń

CANC

17:00

Starogard Gdański

3/19/2022

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Elana Toruń45%

×Draw25%

Starogard Gdański29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elana ToruńExpected goals in this matchStarogard Gdański

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.19

Elana Toruń

1.54

Starogard Gdański

1.19

Elana Toruń creates 29% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 66 away

1.60

creates per match

1.24

1.14

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Elana Toruń

1.60

Starogard Gdański

1.24

allows per match

Elana Toruń

1.14

Starogard Gdański

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Starogard Gdański+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Starogard Gdański →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw

71%

Elana Toruń or Starogard Gdański

75%

Draw or Starogard Gdański

55%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

23%

Starogard Gdański wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

79%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

45%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

20%

Starogard Gdański 1+ goals

70%

Starogard Gdański 2+ goals

33%

Starogard Gdański 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

61%

Starogard Gdański (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Starogard Gdański away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Starogard Gdański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Starogard Gdański attack 1.24 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Elana Toruń scores more

45%

level

25%

Starogard Gdański scores more

29%

Elana Toruń at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff