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Stari Grad vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stari Grad
Stari Grad
FT
1 – 0
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
8/29/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stari Grad58%
×Draw21%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stari Grad
2.00
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.08

Stari Grad creates 85% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 19 away

creates per match

Stari Grad
1.74
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
0.79

allows per match

Stari Grad
1.38
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
2.26

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

Sloboda Novi Kozarci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw
80%
Stari Grad or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
79%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Kozarci
42%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+
35%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals
86%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
59%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
32%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
66%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
29%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)
74%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.00

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 0.79 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Stari Grad scores more
58%
level
21%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
20%

Stari Grad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stari Grad vs Sloboda Novi Kozarci

Stari Grad beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište OFK Stari Grad in Bačka Palanka.