Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1–1 Stari Grad: Result & Stats

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

FT

1 – 1

Stari Grad

3/20/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 23Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci39%

×Draw25%

Stari Grad36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Novi KozarciExpected goals in this matchStari Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.42

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.47

Stari Grad

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

1.00

creates per match

1.09

1.74

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.00

Stari Grad

1.09

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.74

Stari Grad

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Stari Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw

64%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Stari Grad

75%

Draw or Stari Grad

61%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+

18%

Stari Grad wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals

77%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals

43%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals

18%

Stari Grad 1+ goals

76%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

41%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)

51%

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more

39%

level

25%

Stari Grad scores more

36%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Kozarci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff