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Stari Grad vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Stari Grad
Stari Grad
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
4/16/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Igralište OFK Stari Grad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stari Grad44%
×Draw24%
Radnički Sombor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stari Grad
1.60
Radnički Sombor
1.33

Stari Grad creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Stari Grad
1.74
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Stari Grad
1.38
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Stari Grad+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stari Grad ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stari Grad or draw
68%
Stari Grad or Radnički Sombor
76%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
56%

Winning margin

Stari Grad wins by 2+
22%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stari Grad 1+ goals
80%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
47%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
22%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
74%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
38%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stari Grad (draw refunded)
58%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stari Grad at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stari Grad attack 1.74 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Stari Grad defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stari Grad scores more
44%
level
24%
Radnički Sombor scores more
32%

Stari Grad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Stari Grad 3–1 Radnički Sombor

Stari Grad beat Radnički Sombor 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište OFK Stari Grad in Bačka Palanka.